11/03/09:Jim Geraghty of National Review

" Michael ground Wednesday's tended to look. Let's get an update from the guy who's been following all races and effect voted and one of them today our friend Jim Garrity at the camping spot at national view online the morning Gemini don't."

" A potentially liberated corder. Of Virginia. Like to refer to my neighborhood as yet he acres it's in Alexandria Virginia -- places where Obama yard signs came standard with outlet you they depicting the launch when you play. And -- turnout was pretty darn lights this morning I think it was you know a little bit lighter that we had a special local election in the the beginning of the year that almost nobody voted to nobody do about it nobody really -- to -- the local elections. But my guess is that if if they heavily democratic neighborhoods they're not coming up firfer creepy it's not a good sign for him."

" Let me -- covering erases all along in the race at some of most interest here in Massachusetts I think. Is the upstate New York congressional district. With Doug Hoffman in -- and talk about unloading on the guy they said the vice president and and what does this rural New York district ever seen a vice. President you know and he's up calling. The folks there are sporting Hoffman extremists. The Democrats are dumping. A big time money on the district. And they're insulting the character of the people who are supporting the guy and saying this is gonna destroy the Republican Party Jim Garrity -- writes what's your take."

" I have ever gonna steal that line from one of your distinguished colleagues in the radio business a little bit and it was Fred Thompson who said yes well you know the job of the vice president sort of funerals. Would that holiday. And -- metaphor for what that they -- campaign. It."

" Well you looked up the next line because these -- I think the vice president was a day early."

" Yet. I thought I thought that the turbulent campaign is already dead bury it and realize that. That is officially the U. Just gonna observing that it hit her accidentally. Look at the race in which is not a conservative district but they heavily Republican district. And he did not an enormous amount of political attack for the whole house straight. But most people think the conservative candidate Doug Hoffman could win this thing and I think one of the things that jumped out -- if you look at the Democrat below. What are your whole attitude that rate your poll that treatment rate. People who -- the thirties. You know sometimes even this note point 9% of federal. Really tough to see him jumping ahead to fifty point 1% over. I'll."

" What ever thought votes to the to the and -- of the -- can collar Republicans suggest that Democrat that the."

" Diablo Democrat and all the label late."

" I didn't yet again Marc -- rate diablo democratic at all -- little all the legal yup got it. --"

" we get that he -- full Republican she endorsed. The Democrat Bill Owens yes typically Sunday. I'll I'm not sure that -- goes to follow the thumbs up really is a good housekeeping seal of approval or more pockets not sure that people start back intensely loyalty to her little horror. -- if you. She says vote for the Democrat these folks were currently registered Republicans are gonna crossover vote for the Democrat. It possible to just just a couple of -- scenario. It it just not a terribly democratic district -- like a facility that all the drop on the Republican conservative side. The Democrat -- has been out there trying to make his case that he just hasn't closed the deal. So I just gonna at this sneaking suspicion that you know. We'll do reasonably well at certain about it because father but I think -- to win an -- probably I would like if you want brilliantly. Can point to so."

" Here's the deal we're talking to Jim Garrity -- camping spot national review dot com. Already the White House and supporters of President Obama saying that this the election has nothing to do whatsoever with national politics at all there is -- America had never even heard of it that this is -- little duchy of upstate New York. There's apparently boarded on all sides by Canada or Maine which I think is the same thing. Do you --"

" It's it's they're -- trying to have it both ways that it's one of those things where. If you really think the local rates -- national implications don't central bought it. If you really think the Virginia governor's race has no impact don't have the candidates send out flyers there are indistinguishable. From all public flyers if you think New Jersey governor's race has no impact. Don't put up billboards that say Obama Corzine not gonna help but wonder I would have Joe Biden guilt about that -- that basically got a get him out of the way it makes it appears the court I'll look. It'll these cases beat these individual democratic the flaws of the individual democratic candidates is a factor. All these cases the strength to the Republican candidate is a factor but in the end. If Obama were at 70% approval rating all of these Democrats to be much better shape."

" Yet it -- to me and I wrote about this for The Herald today. There -- a bunch of fence sitters here in Massachusetts or potentially good candidate to six months ago we're going -- and -- Many killed as the year of the Obama -- and a new era people inside a conservative media were telling people like me. Don't be critical of President Obama yet to find a way to like Obama because. It's now did that something is fundamentally changed in America -- ever gonna criticize their president again I'm going. And that the topic of how far we've come Jim Garrity just in six months now. Where -- deeds doesn't run with Barack Obama in Virginia and a deep blue state like New Jersey could see a Republican governor."

" And it's little things where you know you look at Obama's approval rating apparently the yet and polls out today and it has dramatic drop in the issue was. To get approval disapproval rating in the economy is up to 54%. You know look what that is there were enormous expectations yet back into Saturday they think it's in the beginning part of this year. People felt really fantastic about the Democrats in full of optimism about the new president would. -- felt okay about speaker Pelosi and Harry Reid and here we are you know that there were now to Election Day one year later. And there seems to -- the sense of all we know we haven't got the hope and change we were promised we've -- better. I'll that I think that that sort of thing that's holding back all of these democratic candidate is. The -- promises they want. Americans have to have political promises before and other than a week -- some sort of result that you know. There is great headline and yet it earlier today were Obama that the recovery is continuing but to drop -- should increase."

" Well Jim Garrity for the second time say that again please."

" That the recovery is continuing but the job losses should increase which you know it one -- my readers have said probably didn't even put that. You know it just kind of observing that that you know at some point you've got. Start generating something and yet you know there is that apparently the GDP growth last quarter I guess that's okay -- the market -- a little bit better but. If you look a couple of the here until you get your job back. Improvement that and get. Either observation of the daily to -- repealing that if you talk to Democrats is that what we do about employed at -- really really need an extension of the play benefits. I don't shake these people they -- what -- really really need is the job."

" Job exactly in the in nobody can point to any part of the Obama agenda that is a private sector job agenda. Nobody a day it integrates piece on fire and I don't know them not to mention anymore but ox they lose and -- it's a certain cable network on May Mayweather. -- offended daughter well don't don't. -- scare anybody but there's this rumor mill called ox they lose today that -- Oregon they talked these guys who had stimulus jobs with the elderly are all working for the state of origin. And they were learning to be counselors for people who didn't have jobs. And the one thing that they were all a short was don't worry. When the stimulus money ends in you know six months or a year we're gonna keep you on your government job. So congratulations and organ unemployment in the private sector is still up you know it and soaring. But they've got more and more government employees that they're gonna have to pay for after the 800 billion we borrowed disappears."

" Yeah. I have a piece all of kind of what happened in New Jersey they used to live there which is about fifteen years ago Michael of shocked. But it didn't get shot was shot out of -- in terms of there actually."

" I lived in Jersey City for awhile and I all the all the prove it."

" The relatively safe suburbs but it will never -- My parent is look at security now they don't get an uncle used to live in security now they don't have to collect all of -- those lot of friends and relatives. Gold related this state and there -- a big part cost of living is a big part. And it's just what little things that we you have this parasitic level. I think you're basically that a patronage jobs these unelected commission don't."

" They really know anything about that a Massachusetts I would."

" I that they completely alien -- you folks the public -- while. I'll kind of observing that would. The state of the government becomes too much a part of the economy and they've come to which part extracting of the private sector. And all the other vehicles would not. Providing sufficient quality of life for that there was nobody to liquidate their money's worth out of their state local government. People decide what the heck with that of their lives the world and that's what you've seen New -- exited the political figures really accelerating in the past couple of years. And does the -- and passionately today where he talked to lot of folks in New Jersey. -- the election is yet to see if it you know of course I'd win they're they're out of there and there's really no chance to save the state."

" We're talking to Jim Garrity to campaign spots so what are your predictions. For the three races of people are focused on upstate New York. The New Jersey governorship and the Virginia governorship."

" The good news little you know go to the very it worked once I cured Virginia I think we're gonna your route I I put that would be surprised -- Bob -- by. 60%. I -- that is going to be a blowout."

" Wait a minute and Barack Obama carried Virginia way back almost oh a year ago."

" EDS and we are told it was a purple state. -- would -- not just as he gonna win big I think you'll see you know the attorney general's race with the governor's race we'll both go Republican big and the wind up been. A public -- mistake they'll decreases. I'll let those that is I guess that the -- earlier that I think -- would win by. 8910 points and -- at the peak of fairly reliable with I think it's a little energy panel was told his side. In New Jersey I put up this prediction yesterday and it really upset at what you breeders' but it sort of the you know by. My natural pessimism about how things have Gordon New Jersey I think I think Chris Christie went to the -- But I think tomorrow would all the magic ballots have been found I think Jon Corzine he says -- by a few hundred. Certain ballots get loss to."

" Talking about those district those precincts where John fund pointed out have already had ten times more absentee ballots filed. Then they had in the previous election cycle."

" And worth noting that you know we're seeing higher than they were in the presidential election which is very very usual. The thing that because out of him. It was obvious but as we get to won't let it -- big stink -- New Jersey. I'll -- 3000 to you that you said that -- requests for absentee ballot. And he signed it and they have a signature on file with when you registered voter and you -- a -- we know there there are 3000 but did not match. Action and I was told by folks who are familiar with that. That was a little bit different bill that's why -- understand that your hand in understanding you're sitting there things might be different. Is that we've been rejected it was because that was the difference between it is signatures at night day. Well the New Jersey Democratic Party. That once they do this they may contact the person by mail they call the person there's a number listed edit the company would go in person to try to. Why is this different did you sign -- that you know with your -- broken you know whatever legitimate explanation there could be to try to sort it out. Solved but nonetheless because the Democratic Party want to do not of that doesn't wanna check the pictures of what all of these people to begin provisional ballots. Just in case enable multiple sorted out after the election. Translation -- they wanna create a pool vote vote vote for John Corzine to get into. -- 3000 or so if he -- is a -- beat down by developers small march."

" And so that we -- yeah exactly. All once again -- in Massachusetts where the call. How many votes she got is -- that voters saying how many votes you need so this is nothing new for those those familiar with the boss away or the Chicago way Jim -- the camping spot thanks so much for joining us from national review dot com I appreciate your time. Michael -- Wednesday's tended to."

" Boston."